The Unemployment Picture:
It’s Still Ugly Out There
When I hear the "talking heads" and pundits chirping happily about all the good news on the employment front, I have one thought: what planet are these people living on? Yes, it is true that the stock market undoubtedly is doing very well. The US economy is faring far
better than those in such countries as Italy, Ireland, Spain, France, and even Germany. And the unemployment picture has been getting better. Unfortunately, it's improving with the speed of a glacier melting! Lets look at some of the facts. We will look at three data
points for comparison:
-
January 2007 Before the recessions started
-
October 2009 Worst month of the recession
-
September 2014 Current time
The key metrics we'll examine are all derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly figures:
-
Unemployment Rate
-
Under-employment Rate (BLS U-6 Report)
-
Long Term Unemployment
-
Labor Force Participation Rate
I can hear you right now after you look at these figures: "What, are you out of your mind? Those figures are great! Everything is better -- and by a wide margin." Yes, I agree with you. Those figures are great. But let's put in in context: those figures represents growth from the rock bottom of the recession.
Now let's get a different perspective: how is the Employment Picture compared to January 2007, a time before the recession hit?
Things don't look nearly as "rosy", do they? Everything is worse -- appreciably worse -- than it was before the recession. There are two figures that are particularly disturbing:
-
Under-employed rate. This figure includes all the unemployed plus those people who are working part time because that can't find
-
full time work. Over one out of 10 people in the labor force -- 11.8% -- fall into this category, a figure 37% higher than it was before the recession.
-
Long Term Unemployed. These are people that have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. 32% of the unemployed -- nearly one out of three -- fall into this category, a figure double what it was before the recession.
But, as bad as these figures are, there is another that is far more troubling: the Labor Force Participation Rate! This is the measure of
what percentage of the potential labor force is working or actively looking for a job.
You will notice that the Labor Force Partipation Rate dropped by 5% since the recession started. You may be thinking, "Yeah, so what? What's the big deal?" Here's the big deal:
The good news
Yes, the picture isn't pretty. However, there is still plenty of opportunity for those that are prepared. Consider some of the bright spots:
-
Though it's low, the employment picture is improving. According to the employment report for September 2014, nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector rose by 248,000.
-
There are always plenty of jobs out there. According to the experts, during the decade 1994-2004, in good times or bad, 15 million jobs disappeared each year in the US but 17 million new jobs got created.
-
According to the recent Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTs report -- Job Openings and Labor Turnover -- on the last day of September 2014, there were 4.7 million job openings, a figure little changed from the previous month!
-
Key point: A person who is seeking to land a job and does all the work necessary to become a professional effective job seeker will not only find a job but also a career that leads on to bigger and better things
And that is what TAG for Productivity is all about: Providing the training and the one-on-one work to develop the unemployed into professional effective job seekers.
And we have over a 90% success rate to back up that claim.
Please continue to explore our website to find out how we can work effectively together.
